Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.276846 1.490302 1.728020 2.012351 2.343210 2.716120 3.168452
2024-12-15 0.932778 1.216174 1.567639 2.035470 2.642070 3.402461 4.429060
2024-12-22 0.714397 1.007834 1.400697 1.964964 2.755062 3.823069 5.378832
2024-12-29 0.632323 0.950953 1.404841 2.098227 3.131480 4.616058 6.915807
2025-01-05 0.522131 0.830007 1.292796 2.038594 3.211503 4.988119 7.890694
2025-01-12 0.435850 0.728096 1.189021 1.968182 3.254041 5.295789 8.793910
2025-01-19 0.369814 0.646420 1.102246 1.907150 3.295177 5.595968 9.712494
2025-01-26 0.333255 0.607412 1.077869 1.942752 3.495919 6.174538 11.162442
2025-02-02 0.316846 0.600481 1.105922 2.070656 3.869813 7.089295 13.311579
2025-02-09 0.293045 0.576238 1.099208 2.133438 4.132227 7.835705 15.249232
2025-02-16 0.267949 0.545687 1.076251 2.161453 4.330997 8.485963 17.085184
2025-02-23 0.242610 0.510883 1.040184 2.158152 4.466520 9.028785 18.775628
2025-03-02 0.219044 0.477110 1.003155 2.150898 4.599254 9.594454 20.613830
2025-03-09 0.200728 0.451902 0.980486 2.170945 4.792588 10.309964 22.868325
2025-03-16 0.176461 0.410184 0.917456 2.095538 4.771088 10.573484 24.186533
2025-03-23 0.172382 0.413091 0.951095 2.237599 5.246275 11.960023 28.171247
2025-03-30 0.153509 0.379002 0.897696 2.174023 5.245745 12.294263 29.800014
2025-04-06 0.136195 0.346130 0.842694 2.098956 5.207655 12.536735 31.243146
2025-04-13 0.121577 0.317786 0.794615 2.033888 5.184424 12.809695 32.794365
2025-04-20 0.114423 0.307307 0.788449 2.071845 5.420534 13.733038 36.081975
2025-04-27 0.112983 0.311489 0.819292 2.208204 5.924348 15.376889 41.424454
2025-05-04 0.108004 0.305509 0.823389 2.275136 6.256175 16.627610 45.905287
2025-05-11 0.101686 0.294959 0.814145 2.305003 6.492908 17.661437 49.942030